After its unveiling at last year’s E3, Project Natal left gamers with a large number of unanswered questions about Microsoft’s foray into the world of motion control. Interesting UI functionality and the possibility of offering a deeper and more involved experience then either Sony or Nintendo’s motion controllers has kept me interested but it has finally come time for Microsoft to show their hand; if Edge’s rumored $149.00 price point is to be believed, they had better have a royal flush. Anything less then a stellar showing at their E3 press conference could signal the failure of Natal before it ever makes it’s way to store shelves later this year.
Comparable to the Sega CD and 32X, Project Natal represents somewhat of a stopgap as Microsoft tries to prolong the length of the Xbox 360’s lifespan to Shane Kim’s lofty ten-year goal. However, much like the aforementioned Sega Genesis add-ons, Natal could end up being one big failure. With it’s reported price point only 50 dollars less then the current Wii bundle (which comes with Wii-Motion Plus, as well as Wii Sports and Resort), Microsoft faces one hell of an uphill battle in capturing the Casual-Family marketplace.
The initial and continued success of Natal will hinge on the creation of u
nique and innovative software, which to this point, is yet to be seen. In contrast to a new console launch, gamers won’t buy Natal simply based on the future potential of the platform. Milo and Kate, the ‘adopt a British kid,’ simulation title from Lionhead seems like a step in the right direction, but only represents one game when Microsoft needs about 5 or 6 to guarantee support for Natal beyond the initial batch of launch titles. As we have yet to see what Rare has been working on (as it is more then likely a Natal game/s), I should probably reserve my criticism of the lack of games until after E3, but with Rare struggling to be relevant this generation, it is questionable as to how pertinent their game will be to both casual and hardcore gamers.
The recent trend among third party developers, which has them moving away from exclusivity with platform holders, as seen with the recent deals inked by Insomniac and Bungie, also spells potential disaster for Natal. A solely Natal based experience goes far beyond console exclusivity as it narrows the number of potential customers even further. The video game industry doesn’t leave much room for error as far as development decisions go, and Microsoft needs to prove that Natal is a worthwhile platform to commit time for the development of larger and more ambitious titles. There is room for smaller download games and the usual tech demo fitness titles, but the staying power of Natal needs to be defined by significant software titles or risk outright failure.
To put the dire situation that Microsoft faces into perspective, one need only look at Nintendo and the peripheral hardware released for the Wii. Both Wii MotionPlus and Wii Fit serve as examples of mid-cycle hardware revisions and the perils that surround them. Although Nintendo has been able to sell a whopping 22 million Wii-Balance boards, the only significant and compelling piece of software to accompany it is Wii-Fit, causing development to become stagnant. In contrast, Wii-MotionPlus is still searching for it’s killer app (One could make an argument for Wii Sports Resort) and it may take the next Zelda title requiring it’s use to truly penetrate the Wii audience.
Besides the need for actual games, (the 
eyetoy-esque kicking ball games don’t count Microsoft) Natal may hinge on the success of it’s PR and marketing team. Maybe the fact that Wii Fit hasn’t succeeded as a platform is because Nintendo never positioned it like one; Over the past couple years, and specifically with the launch of the NXE and Avatars, the 360 has reinvented itself from a hardcore gaming platform to a ‘family friendly’ multimedia device. I would venture to guess that with the media storm surrounding the Wii all but gone, Microsoft is hoping to recapture that same buzz with Natal as it goes after the same demographic – I also wouldn’t be surprised with an announcement of specific fitness focused games to launch along with the platform later this year.
Could Natal end up being a successful venture for Microsoft? Certainly; but the hurdles that they must overcome are quite tall and vast in numbers. Many of my concerns may be dealt with during the E3 press conference, but I have a feeling my skepticism won’t disappear altogether.
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